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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with US officials are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to present the terms to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president said that the US Congress is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements could be prepared “imminently.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to summit-level talks possibly this weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror article 5” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukrainian military capabilities, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not advance, with the demilitarised area becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use police and national guard units rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” stated Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will proceed on the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people approved it in a national vote. The major impediment is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a fair request from us to the Americans,” he added.