🔗 Share this article

Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “take back the oil”, a single fact remains evident – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the early hours of Saturday saw its premier large-scale offensive on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and capture its head of state – just a short time after he publicly sought an off-ramp – carries even broader implications. We all have reason to be worried.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is converting it into a rogue state.

He is convinced that the United States' strength enables it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came absent any United Nations mandate or congressional approval; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Put aside the implication this carries to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s growing sense of invincibility will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

Few believe the justification that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was welcome, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s voters who oppose foreign entanglements could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but rising medical costs, economic unhappiness and distracting files fuel his desire for external drama.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.