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For a brief period, Trump gave the impression to adopt a resolute approach on the Ukrainian conflict. Following delivering threats of "significant repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin carried on obstructing ceasefire negotiations, Trump ultimately enacted major restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move significantly affected the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

But, via his recently unveiled 28-point peace plan for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian representatives lacking Ukrainian or EU input, he has clearly returned to his Russia-friendly position.

Favoring Military Action

Trump's initiative would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Although strong proclamations that "Ukraine's autonomy will be upheld", much of the proposal actually compromise that same independence. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his corporate experience, Trump seems to view the war as a simple territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. But, Putin's military campaign is not only about dominating a destroyed region of economically weakened area in the Donbas region. It is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear intention to destroy it so it ceases to serves as an enticing standard for the Russian citizens of the accountable government that Putin's deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Land Concessions

Although keeping in place the currently split oblasts of these areas, the initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon all of this eastern territory. In addition to favoring Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of conflict, this giveaway would make Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

The area is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the entrenched military defenses that constitute a critical barrier to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these defenses, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital should he subsequently opt to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Additionally, in a action that would enable future conflict simpler for Russia, the plan would require Ukraine to cut the scale of its troops from their existing 800,000 to 850,000 troops to a cap of 600,000. Significantly, the proposal places no equivalent restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Putin's efforts to characterize Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, the plan declares: "Any extremist belief system and activities must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this point, it requires that "Ukraine will hold political contests in 100 days" of a truce. At the same time, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his authoritarian rule by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Certainly, the plan makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However given that the Russian leadership has violated equivalent treaties in the previous instances – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to respect Ukraine's territorial integrity in exchange for giving up its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a truce and a restoration of captured territory in the region to Ukrainian control – why should anyone have confidence in Putin now?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on international protection assurances. While the plan warns of a "immediate unified defense action" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from fuzzy to concerning. The plan would not only block the nation accession to NATO but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning forces on Ukrainian territory, effectively preventing the security presence, likely commanded by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from restoring his diminished forces, rearming, and reinvading.

Global Response

A separate parallel deal apparently would grant the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any later "significant, deliberate, and continuous aggression" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack endangering the peace and security of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a capable Ukrainian military – the nation's primary protection against future Russian aggression – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the commitment of Western powers, including Trump, to act through arms to Putin's hostilities, a response they have {not